ETS2 Carbon Pricing Is Delayed to 2028, But the Reporting Clock Never Stopped

The EU has pushed the start of ETS2 carbon pricing on road transport fuel back a year to 2028, but monitoring and reporting obligations remain unchanged, and the cost impact for hauliers has not gone away, only been postponed.

Brussels Pushes ETS2 to 2028, But the Reprieve Is Smaller Than It Looks

In November 2025, EU co-legislators agreed to push back the launch of the second Emissions Trading System, ETS2, by a full year. <cite index="18-1">EU co-legislators agreed to delay ETS2 by one year, to start in 2028, rather than 2027.</cite> The change was folded into a wider deal that also set a legally binding target to cut EU greenhouse gas emissions 90% by 2040, and it was driven largely by concern that launching a carbon price on diesel and petrol in 2027 would land on top of already volatile energy costs.

The detail that gets lost in the headlines is that the paperwork obligations did not move. <cite index="19-7,19-8">Although the launch date has been pushed back, the obligation to collect and report emissions data remains unchanged, and this reporting framework will form the basis for the full rollout of the system in 2028.</cite> Vehicle manufacturers were quick to flag their unease with the delay. ACEA, the European car and truck makers' association, <cite index="24-2">noted with caution the decision to delay or weaken the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System for road transport and buildings</cite>, warning that <cite index="24-4">a delayed start, together with several of the modifications currently under discussion, risks undermining its integrity and weakening the signals that drive investment in zero-emission technologies.</cite>

The Cost Math Hasn't Changed, Only the Start Date

ETS2 works by making fuel suppliers, not hauliers, buy and surrender carbon allowances for every tonne of CO2 in the fuel they sell. That cost gets passed straight through to the pump price. IRU's own analysis is blunt about the scale: <cite index="20-1">an ETS2 price of €50 to €100 per tonne of CO2 could push diesel prices at the pump up by around 10%, with some projections pointing to much higher carbon prices later in the decade.</cite>

Italian transport association Federtrasporti has put actual numbers on what that means at fleet level. <cite index="25-4,25-5,25-6">Its calculations show the additional cost from ETS2 could reach around €6,000 per year for a single truck running about 100,000 kilometres, which works out to an increase of €40 to €60 per 400-kilometre route, or roughly €120,000 a year for a small 20-vehicle fleet.</cite> That lands hard on a sector where <cite index="25-7">profitability often fluctuates between just 1% and 3%.</cite> A one-year delay buys planning time. It does not change the order of magnitude.

The Compliance Clock Is Already Running

Even with the launch pushed to 2028, the ETS2 compliance cycle for regulated fuel suppliers is well under way. <cite index="35-2,35-4,35-5">Regulated entities have had to hold a greenhouse gas emissions permit and an approved monitoring plan since 1 January 2025, must submit an annual emissions report by 30 April for the previous year's emissions, and from 2026 that data must be verified by an accredited verifier.</cite> The first surrender of allowances only kicks in once the system goes live: <cite index="35-6">from 2028, once annual verified emissions are reported, regulated entities will have to surrender the equivalent number of allowances by 31 May of the following year.</cite>

Prices won't be left to run wild in the early years either. There is a built-in safety valve: <cite index="34-11">if allowance prices exceed roughly €45, adjusted for inflation, in the first three years, additional allowances will be released from the market stability reserve to counteract excessive price increases.</cite> That caps the worst-case scenario for a while, but the direction of travel after the cap loosens is still upward.

There is also money on the table to help operators adjust before the costs bite. <cite index="25-10,25-11,25-12">The European Investment Bank, working with the European Commission, has launched the ETS2 Frontloading Facility, a €3 billion financing line for sectors covered by ETS2 including road transport, which gives companies earlier access to funds to plan and finance emissions-reducing investments before the system formally starts and before allowance revenues begin flowing.</cite>

Who Actually Pays, and Why It Still Hits Your Numbers

It's worth being precise about who is regulated here, because it changes what a haulier actually needs to do. <cite index="29-10,29-12">The obligation to purchase allowances falls on fuel suppliers, not end-users, so transport companies will not be directly regulated but will experience higher fuel costs as suppliers pass the carbon pricing down.</cite> No haulier needs an ETS2 permit. Every haulier will see it on the diesel invoice.

That's exactly why the one-year delay matters less than it sounds. <cite index="19-11,19-12">For hauliers, the postponement mainly provides extra time to plan budgets, revise price lists and renegotiate contracts, but the direction of travel is unchanged: fuel prices will rise as suppliers pass the cost of CO2 allowances on to end users.</cite> Contracts signed today that run into 2028 without a fuel or carbon escalation clause are exposed to a cost shock that is now, at least, predictable and datable.

What to Do Between Now and 2028

Two years is enough time to get ahead of this if you start now rather than in 2027. The first practical step is modelling, not guessing: build two or three carbon-price scenarios (the €45 cap floor and the €70-100 range IRU flags as plausible) into your per-kilometre rate calculations, so you know today what a 2028 diesel shock does to margin on your actual lanes rather than an industry average.

The second step is contractual. Multi-year freight contracts being negotiated now should carry an explicit fuel and carbon cost escalation clause tied to a published index, not a fixed diesel surcharge that will be stale by the time ETS2 goes live. The third is documentation. Verified emissions reporting is already tightening on the supplier side, and shippers are increasingly asking carriers for their own fuel consumption and CO2 data as part of tender packs, well ahead of any legal requirement to hand it over.

Where FleetlySolutions Fits In

None of this requires new hardware or a telematics overhaul. Our per-kilometre freight pricing engine lets you build carbon-price and fuel-cost scenarios directly into your rate cards, so when ETS2 pricing does land you're renegotiating from a model you've already tested, not reacting after the invoice arrives.

The route and toll planning module reduces the exposure in the first place, by cutting empty running and unnecessary detours that burn diesel you'll eventually pay a carbon price on. And because fuel data flows in automatically through our DKV integration, you already have clean, per-vehicle, per-route consumption records, exactly the kind of evidence you'll want on hand whether you're applying for EIB Frontloading Facility financing, answering a shipper's sustainability questionnaire, or simply proving to yourself where the diesel is actually going before 2028 arrives.